There was much talk about Ming vases during the election campaign. Instead, in these Euros-dominated days, here’s a football metaphor. Keir Starmer’s task amounted to getting to full time without serious mishap against a team that was 5-0 down within 40 minutes, all own goals, whose captain left the field early for half-time, and whose players started butting heads well before the game’s end. But you can only beat what’s in front of you. Now the hard part starts.
The domestic challenges look bad: the NHS crisis, bankrupt local governments, crumbling infrastructure, a flat economy. But the foreign policy in-tray looks worse: war in Europe, conflict in the Middle East, friction with China and a possible Trump return. It makes for the most fragile and dangerous time for a generation.
Business will kick off with two summits. President Joe Biden will host Nato leaders from 9-11 July. After his record win, Starmer will be in the spotlight, the man everyone wants to meet. Ukraine will dominate the discussion. The trajectory of the war has changed and the initiative now lies with Moscow. Had the US Congress not agreed recently to resume US military aid to Ukraine, we might now be seeing substantial Russian advances. And Putin believes he can outlast the west.
This Nato gathering, with Starmer playing his part, needs to reaffirm support for Ukraine; the Europeans must commit to doing more; and leaders must reassert convincingly that Nato will last the course. Because if Putin wins in Ukraine, he will not stop there.
A week later, Starmer will host the European Political Community summit: 50 European leaders meeting at Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire. Behind the scenes, EU leaders will be curious to know what Starmer wants from them. Is it only an agreement on foreign policy cooperation, a deal to minimise checks on agri-food trade, something on youth mobility? Or will there be more ambition?